Tech forecast

It is sometimes fun to have a go at forecasting the future especially in technology.  So here is my latest.

The days of the internet in the form we see it today is dead.  Why?  Because of security.  The internet is all but insecurable in its current form and we need to go back to basics.  What will the future be?

It will be client server.  and here is why.

Client server works.  The main reason why it was abandoned for the www was simple.  There were a number of different reasons:

1. The distribution of software was physical.  CD or disk.  Too hard for mass market.
2. The variations of OS and capabilities meant that there were too many variations to test or versions to create.
3. The networks for which client server worked were not fast enough or reliable enough
4. The cost of production was too high

So we invented the web which did some basic things.  But not content with basic things the www has grown and the complexity with it.  The costs of basic transactions to implement on the web has grown and grown.  But all the original reasons to move to www and away from client server?

1. Software distribution is now trivial.  There are a few main OS variations and all have software distribution capability.  Problem sorted.
2. The standardisation of things like Java and .net mean that applications can now be programmed for fewer variations (two would do).  Or pick a camp.  Given the complexity now of browser testing going back to two variations would seem simpler.
3. The internet and connectivity is reliable and fast in a vast majority of places.  Enough for client server.
4. With the cost of web transactions now, the cost of producing applications is probably not that much higher than the web.

Client server would be easier to secure.  Period.

The justification for the www is diminishing, at least for transactions.  Yes, SAAS is still a good way to go but is still leaving the clients exposed to some serious security cracks that papering over simply will not do for much longer.  Either the www gets more serious on security or its back to client server.