Bet
Bored waiting for my last appointment I downloaded a new iPhone app. Roulette. Turns out to be quite a boring game when played without anything real at stake. Not a surprise revelation. But the bit that got me thinking was around my selection. What drove me to pick the numbers I selected each time.
The first point that struck me was why I ever put more than one chip down. I know there are well documented strategies for the game to maximise the chances and lowering wasted chips. But I know about none of these strategies.
What appears to be happening is a complexity issue about odds and their interaction. My betting is therefore linked to my ability to understand odds and nothing to do with the odds themselves. I put down my first chip on a junction of 4 numbers. I went to put down a second chip and suddenly it occurred to me, what does it mean to put down a second chip?
I put the first chip down largely at random. Its a game of chance with one chip going down. Let's pretend the odds of winning vs the reward are proportional. In such a case there is no difference as to where you put your first chip. It is when I put the second chip down that it becomes interesting. Why would I place a second chip at all? Given in a single chip bet I can get odds from anywhere from 50/50 (red/black, even/odd) all the way to the 1 in 36 (is this right) for a single number selection it appears I have a wide range of options. In fact I can get odds of 1:1 by putting a chip on red and black but due to the green 0 I would eventually lose. But let's ignore the 0 and green for now.
So the second chip down says that I do not actually believe the first one will win. Its a strange thought. I put down a chip anywhere and then a second one because there is a risk the first one will not come home. All I am doing is altering the odds and returns. But in fact if I wanted to alter my odds I could do so by changing the position of 1 chip (2 chips on single numbers or 1 chip on the border of 2 numbers would be the same thing). If I wanted to get higher rewards from 2 chips then I could just put 2 chips on the same 2 number border. I can see I may be confusing people by now.
What I am saying is that there is a wide range of odds available to a single ship bet that are not improved by a 2 chip bet. Yet I would be staggered if I EVER saw (I have been to casinos) someone just put down one chip or 2 chips (or more) on the same place each spin. We seem to be programmed to feel that putting chips down on multiple numbers is somehow increasing our chances. All it does in increase the complexity of the calculations. And I think this is the key. I understand the odds of winning with one chip. The odds of winning with 2 or 3 or 4 chips in different places is incalculable in my head. Psychologically this is interesting. It says to me that in the presence of uncertainty I become and optimist. In the absence of knowledge my brain tells me that my odds, in the case of uncertainty of reality, are actually greater than they are.
This has been stated before as to why people bet on the lottery (odds are so incomprehensible that people bet anyway) but I did not realise it until I thought thought through the roulette experience that it is because we are naturally optimistic.
What would drive such behaviours? I suspect I will need to read up on various academic specialisms to get the right answer but I think there are probably some easy answers.
The first would be that as a species we live in constant incalculable situations. If we were pessimistic in the presence of incalculable odds or uncertainty we would never get out of bed in the morning. We could never function effectively. As animals we would not have the mental rational capabilities to deal with abstracts like odds and even though we do now, we struggle.
We seem to deal with uncertainty optimistically in all aspects in our lives. Only when we start to understand risk do we become pessimistic. So when we play roulette, we place multiple bets because we FEEL better, we feel more lucky and optimistic because what we are doing is now incalculable and uncertain vs placing one chip bets only.
The first point that struck me was why I ever put more than one chip down. I know there are well documented strategies for the game to maximise the chances and lowering wasted chips. But I know about none of these strategies.
What appears to be happening is a complexity issue about odds and their interaction. My betting is therefore linked to my ability to understand odds and nothing to do with the odds themselves. I put down my first chip on a junction of 4 numbers. I went to put down a second chip and suddenly it occurred to me, what does it mean to put down a second chip?
I put the first chip down largely at random. Its a game of chance with one chip going down. Let's pretend the odds of winning vs the reward are proportional. In such a case there is no difference as to where you put your first chip. It is when I put the second chip down that it becomes interesting. Why would I place a second chip at all? Given in a single chip bet I can get odds from anywhere from 50/50 (red/black, even/odd) all the way to the 1 in 36 (is this right) for a single number selection it appears I have a wide range of options. In fact I can get odds of 1:1 by putting a chip on red and black but due to the green 0 I would eventually lose. But let's ignore the 0 and green for now.
So the second chip down says that I do not actually believe the first one will win. Its a strange thought. I put down a chip anywhere and then a second one because there is a risk the first one will not come home. All I am doing is altering the odds and returns. But in fact if I wanted to alter my odds I could do so by changing the position of 1 chip (2 chips on single numbers or 1 chip on the border of 2 numbers would be the same thing). If I wanted to get higher rewards from 2 chips then I could just put 2 chips on the same 2 number border. I can see I may be confusing people by now.
What I am saying is that there is a wide range of odds available to a single ship bet that are not improved by a 2 chip bet. Yet I would be staggered if I EVER saw (I have been to casinos) someone just put down one chip or 2 chips (or more) on the same place each spin. We seem to be programmed to feel that putting chips down on multiple numbers is somehow increasing our chances. All it does in increase the complexity of the calculations. And I think this is the key. I understand the odds of winning with one chip. The odds of winning with 2 or 3 or 4 chips in different places is incalculable in my head. Psychologically this is interesting. It says to me that in the presence of uncertainty I become and optimist. In the absence of knowledge my brain tells me that my odds, in the case of uncertainty of reality, are actually greater than they are.
This has been stated before as to why people bet on the lottery (odds are so incomprehensible that people bet anyway) but I did not realise it until I thought thought through the roulette experience that it is because we are naturally optimistic.
What would drive such behaviours? I suspect I will need to read up on various academic specialisms to get the right answer but I think there are probably some easy answers.
The first would be that as a species we live in constant incalculable situations. If we were pessimistic in the presence of incalculable odds or uncertainty we would never get out of bed in the morning. We could never function effectively. As animals we would not have the mental rational capabilities to deal with abstracts like odds and even though we do now, we struggle.
We seem to deal with uncertainty optimistically in all aspects in our lives. Only when we start to understand risk do we become pessimistic. So when we play roulette, we place multiple bets because we FEEL better, we feel more lucky and optimistic because what we are doing is now incalculable and uncertain vs placing one chip bets only.
posted by So long and thanks for all the fish at
5:03 pm
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