Wednesday, May 16, 2012

The rise of the robot?

I was stood in Sainsburys in a queue for the self-service check-out and started to recall a debate that went on years ago when I was doing my degree in AI.  At the time the technology that was available started to get powerful enough to do some impressive things.  At the time, I had a brand new Intel 386 based PC.  Wow, such power.

The debate at the time was that if we got AI right we would eventually take over the world.  The rise of the computer would lead to world wide take over and mass unemployment as the machines took over.  This debate dies out as the output from the IT world was very disappointing and the average PC AI programme would struggle to do even basic tasks.  The debate died away.

18 years on the debate may now have some legs.  Standing in the queue at Sainsburys I realised that the computers at the front of the shop (which I was still queuing for) were run by one person.  A set of checkouts that would previously have kept 12 staff employed for nearly 12 hours per day or more (shift work even more people)  is now run by one person.  The same goes for all supermarkets these days and B&Q and many many many more shops.  

I realised that this is not an uncommon position.  Although we never saw a computer led revolution we have certainly had the silicon world creep up on us and smack us in the back of the head.  Not a knock out blow.  Yet.  

But is this a bad thing?  Hard to say.  The argument against the fear of computer led unemployment was always that these people pushed out of these jobs would do other things.  Like service industry or the public sector?  But even these industries (if you can call them that) are suffering.  Public sector automation has enabled large levels of staff reduction (or will do over the coming years) and in the banking industry we have seen menial tasks being replaced by online banking and automatic paying in machines etc.

There is no doubt that automation is of some benefit.  The banking is easier (who wants to queue) but supermarkets?  I noted that the queue for the 'tills' was as long as ever.  Now each person has to do what two people used to do.  Beep the product through the till and pack.  So surprise surprise the process is not better for the customer, just cheaper for the supermarket.

The time it took from 18 years ago to start to notice clear examples of job losses shows how slow the process is but the process is there.  We also will suffer acceleration and this is unlikely to be a linear effect.  As technology gets more powerful it gets more capable.  And technology is getting significantly more powerful every year.